ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan is responsible for roughly 48% of the population living in extreme poverty throughout the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan area, as reported in the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure considers the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the largest contributor to extreme poverty within the regional grouping of MENAAP.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four countries account for approximately 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for about 14% of the global extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
Pakistan’s situation has also worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached approximately 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and a prolonged period of economic restructuring.
Growing Poverty Challenges After Multiple Crises
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million people to the region’s estimated total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates above 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, yet poverty indicators remain high. The October regional update estimated Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and projected a slight increase to 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. The report also estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% in 2026, with an increase to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower inflation rate in 2025.
Impact of Classification and Economic Outlook on Poverty Figures
The 48% statistic reflects the current World Bank classification of MENAAP, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, both countries were categorized within South Asia by the World Bank. Pakistan’s government stated that this adjustment was purely administrative and statistical, and did not change the country’s geographic or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October update also projects a weaker regional economy in 2026. It forecasted a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP output after a growth of 3.3% in 2025, citing conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade as key factors. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain comparatively resilient. The report anticipates a growth of 4.3% for this group in 2026, although rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across multiple economies.