PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might decrease its daily vessel quota to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new head administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the potential impact of El Niño on reservoir levels. The operation of the canal depends on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to run its locks. In response to below-average rainfall across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has already started implementing phased capacity reductions.
Starting September 3, the canal offered nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 capacity slots. From September 15 onward, Panamax slots will decrease to 23, reducing the total daily capacity to 32. These cuts are a consequence of decreased rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, officials are employing water-saving strategies and tighter booking controls while continuously monitoring Gatun Lake and other key water sources.
In fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day through June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures predate the recent rainfall decline, which has led to stricter operating restrictions. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and plays a vital role in global trade, facilitating shipments of containers, energy, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water scarcity prompts tighter transit limitations
The locks of the canal depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during transit. Consequently, reservoir levels directly influence how many ships can pass during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December when Gatun Lake reached alarmingly low levels. Transit capacity later increased after rainfall improved and conservation efforts helped stabilize water availability for canal operations and public use.
The canal has also modified vessel draft restrictions as part of its water management efforts. On September 4, officials postponed a planned reduction of the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The existing limit of 48 feet remains unchanged following an assessment of Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits determine how deeply ships can be loaded, impacting their operational capacity especially when carrying heavier cargoes.
Changes in reservation policies as transit capacity diminishes
In response to reduced available capacity, the canal has revised its booking and auction procedures. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container ships, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities advise vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as limited capacity could result in longer wait times. Only confirmed reservations guarantee a specific transit date.
A further reduction to 29 ships per day has not yet been mandated. The administrator mentioned that this figure remains a potential limit for February or March, should dry conditions continue. Experts at the canal are closely monitoring rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational measures. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, aimed at expanding long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure water availability for canal functions and more than half of the country’s population.